Is the World Economy “On the road to nowhere” ? What are we supposed to do with our trading stocks ? “Should I stay or should I go” ? Well these questions and many more found a partial answer on July the 6th in the Novotel of Monaco.
The Monaco Economic Board Members had the “once in a year” opportunity to listen to Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist at Allianz Insurance, for an evening around the topic :Will the war of capital take place?
The conference room showed no vacancy, Mr Jean Castellini, Minister of Finance and Economy in Monaco, and Mr Balthazar Seydoux, President of the Finance and National Economy Commission from the National Council of Monaco, were present, and after a smart introduction by Mr Michel Dotta, President of the Monaco Economic Board, the floor was wide open for Ludovic Subran. The lights dimmed and the startling economics’ facts started to flash across the room.
Many hot topics were discussed. The geopolitics currents between Europe, the USA, China and Russia. The Dollar vs Euro. The Ukraine – Russia crisis and its consequences. The unknown long term effects of the pandemic in our economy. The energy crisis. World inflation … and many more nail biting analysis.
How long for the economic sanctions on Russia to disappear ? At least 10 years according to Ludovic Subran.
Will the Euro vs Dollar crash continue ? It will come back to $1.10 to a Euro in 2023 but will remain very low till then said Mr Subran.
Is the Stock Exchange crash over ? The Allianz Chief Economist was rather pessimistic “expect another 15% drop in the coming months”.
What about the energy price ? Will the increase linger ? The Allianz Insurance Oracle mentioned that while the energy inflation in France increased by “only” 7% thanks to the taxation shield, it increased by 200% in Italy… and it’s Summer time. Expect a rude awakening when comes the Fall … “and Winter is coming”, not just on Winterfell.
Sounds gloomy ? Well, Mr Subran tempered, “we are in a recession phase and sorting will be done” concerning the companies and business that had been sustained up till then. Good old Darwinism is back (perhaps) and if you have a solid company, hold on, the best is yet to come as another growth phase will follow.
Some thoughtful questions followed Mr Subran’s vibrant speech concerning the position of Europe regarding Russia which Ludovic Subran summed up as the “Iranisation” of Russia with its arsenal of financial blockades. How about our politics in Europe ? “After 2 years of COVID fighting, they are all tired, it’s human. They should have passed power to less exhausted team mates”. After 1 hr and 45 minutes of one man show, it was time for Ludovic to “drop the mike”.
But it was not over. On the seventh floor of the Novotel Monaco, the Monaco Economic Board had organized a cocktail for the members and extended the opportunity to have private talks with Ludovic Subran. Baccana Digital Consulting seized the chance ask Ludovic a few questions regarding Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, India and China and the game of influence in this booming part of the Asian world. Thank you Mr Subran !
This economic conference was a success. It is always a genuine pleasure to listen to Ludovic Subran whether you are a rookie or professional. Ludovic has that ability to make the most complex economic system understandable to a golden retriever. We just had to talk to a few attendees during the cocktail to sense that every person present fell under the charm of the speaker. Everybody left the conference room with notes to share with their team which says a lot. We will sure be back next year to listen to you Mr Subran. We took some notes for comparison too!